Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
